Pedestrian injury risk and the effect of age.

Older adults and pedestrians both represent especially vulnerable groups in traffic. In the literature, hazards are usually described by the corresponding injury risks of a collision. This paper investigates the MAIS3+F risk (the risk of sustaining at least one injury of AIS 3 severity or higher, or fatal injury) for pedestrians in full-frontal pedestrian-to-passenger car collisions. Using some assumptions, a model-based approach to injury risk, allowing for the specification of individual injury risk parameters for individuals, is presented. To balance model accuracy and sample size, the GIDAS (German In-depth Accident Study) data set is divided into three age groups; children (0-14); adults (15-60); and older adults (older than 60). For each group, individual risk curves are computed. Afterwards, the curves are re-aggregated to the overall risk function. The derived model addresses the influence of age on the outcome of pedestrian-to-car accidents. The results show that older people compared with younger people have a higher MAIS3+F injury risk at all collision speeds. The injury risk for children behaves surprisingly. Compared to other age groups, their MAIS3+F injury risk is lower at lower collision speeds, but substantially higher once a threshold has been exceeded. The resulting injury risk curve obtained by re-aggregation looks surprisingly similar to the frequently used logistic regression function computed for the overall injury risk. However, for homogenous subgroups - such as the three age groups - logistic regression describes the typical risk behavior less accurately than the introduced model-based approach. Since the effect of demographic change on traffic safety is greater nowadays, there is a need to incorporate age into established models. Thus far, this is one of the first studies incorporating traffic participant age to an explicit risk function. The presented approach can be especially useful for the modeling and prediction of risks, and for the evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems.

Pedestrian crossing situations: quantification of comfort boundaries to guide intervention timing.

INTRODUCTION: Technical systems that warn or brake for vehicle-pedestrian encounters reduce injuries more effectively the earlier an intervention is initiated. However, premature intervention can irritate drivers, leading to system deactivation and, consequently, no injury reduction whatsoever. It has been proposed that no intervention should be initiated as long as attentive drivers are within their comfort zones. This study aims at quantifying driver comfort boundaries for pedestrian crossing situations to offer guidance for the appropriate timing of interventions. METHODS: Sixty two volunteers drove through an intersection on a test track at 30 and 50km/h. A pedestrian dummy was launched from behind an obstruction towards the driving path of the approaching car. Brake onset indicated discomfort. Time to collision (TTC), longitudinal and lateral distance were measured at brake onset. RESULTS: TTC was independent of driving speed ranging from 2.1 to 4.3s with a median of 3.2s. Longitudinal distance ranged from 19 to 48 meters with an apparent difference between driving speeds. Lateral distances differed slightly, but significantly between driving speeds. The median was 3.1m (3.2m for 30km/h and 2.9m for 50km/h) and values ranged from 1.9 to 4.1m. Lateral distance in seconds ranged from 1.9 to 4.3s with a median value of 3.1s (3.2s for 30km/h and 3.0s for 50km/h). DISCUSSION: TTC was independent of driving speed, trial order and volunteer age. It might be considered suitable to intervene in situations where, for example, 90% of drivers have exceeded their comfort boundary, i.e. when drivers have already initiated braking. This percentile value translates to intervention at a TTC of 2.5s (95% confidence 2.4-2.7s). The study was limited to Swedish nationals, fully aware drivers, and two driving speeds, but did not investigate behavioural changes due to system interaction. CONCLUSION: This study showed that TTC at brake onset was a suitable measure for the quantification of driver comfort boundaries in pedestrian crossing situations. All drivers applied their brakes prior to 2.1s TTC.

Pedestrian Injuries By Source: Serious and Disabling Injuries in US and European Cases.

US and European pedestrian crash cases were analyzed to determine frequency of injury by body region and by the vehicle component identified as the injury source. US pedestrian data was drawn from the Pedestrian Crash Data Study (PCDS). European pedestrian data was drawn from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS). Results were analyzed in terms of both serious injury (AIS 3+) and disabling injury estimated with the Functional Capacity Index (FCI). The results are presented in parallel for a more complete international perspective on injuries and injury sources. Lower extremity injury from bumper impact and head&face injury from windshield impact were the most frequent combinations for both serious and disabling injuries. Serious lower extremity injuries from bumper contact occurred in 43% of seriously injured pedestrian cases in US PCDS data and 35% of European GIDAS cases. Lower-extremity bumper injuries also account for more than 20% of disability in both datasets. Serious head &face injuries from windshield contact occur in 27% of PCDS and 15% of GIDAS serious injury cases. While bumper impacts primarily result in lower extremity injury and windshield impacts are most often associated with head & face injuries, the hood and hood leading edge are responsible for serious and disabling injuries to a number of different body regions. Therefore, while it is appropriate to focus on lower extremity injury when studying bumper performance and on head injury risk when studying windshield impact, pedestrian performance of other components may require better understanding of injury risk for multiple body regions.

Injury risk functions in frontal impacts using data from crash pulse recorders.

Knowledge of how crash severity influences injury risk in car crashes is essential in order to create a safe road transport system. Analyses of real-world crashes increase the ability to obtain such knowledge.The aim of this study was to present injury risk functions based on real-world frontal crashes where crash severity was measured with on-board crash pulse recorders.Results from 489 frontal car crashes (26 models of four car makes) with recorded acceleration-time history were analysed. Injury risk functions for restrained front seat occupants were generated for maximum AIS value of two or greater (MAIS2+) using multiple logistic regression. Analytical as well as empirical injury risk was plotted for several crash severity parameters; change of velocity, mean acceleration and peak acceleration. In addition to crash severity, the influence of occupant age and gender was investigated.A strong dependence between injury risk and crash severity was found. The risk curves reflect that small changes in crash severity may have a considerable influence on the risk of injury. Mean acceleration, followed by change of velocity, was found to be the single variable that best explained the risk of being injured (MAIS2+) in a crash. Furthermore, all three crash severity parameters were found to predict injury better than age and gender. However, age was an important factor. The very best model describing MAIS2+ injury risk included delta V supplemented by an interaction term of peak acceleration and age.

Literature review of pedestrian fatality risk as a function of car impact speed.

The aim of this review was to evaluate all studies of pedestrian fatality risk as a function of car impact speed. Relevant papers were primarily investigated with respect to data sampling procedures and methods for statistical analysis. It was uniformly reported that fatality risk increased monotonically with car impact speed. However, the absolute risk estimates varied considerably. Without exceptions, papers written before 2000 were based on direct analyses of data that had a large bias towards severe and fatal injuries. The consequence was to overestimate the fatality risks. We also found more recent research based on less biased data or adjusted for bias. While still showing a steep increase of risk with impact speed, these later papers provided substantially lower risk estimates than had been previously reported.

Thoracic Injury Risk as a Function of Crash Severity - Car-to-car Side Impact Tests with WorldSID Compared to Real-life Crashes.

Side airbags reduce the risk of fatal injury by approximately 30%. Due to limited real-life data the risk reducing effect for serious injury has not yet been established. Since side airbags are mainly designed and validated for crash severities used in available test procedures little is known regarding the protective effect when severity increases.The objective of this study was to understand for which crash severities AIS3+ thorax occupant protection in car-to-car nearside collisions need to and can be improved. The aim was fulfilled by means of real life data, for older cars without side airbag, and a series of car-to-car tests performed with the WorldSID 50%-ile in modern and older cars at different impact speeds.The real life data showed that the risk of AIS3+ injury was highest for the thorax followed by the pelvis and head. For both non-senior and senior occupants, most thorax injuries were sustained at lateral delta-v from 20 km/h to 40 km/h. In this severity range, senior occupants were found to have approximately four times higher risk of thoracic injury than non-senior occupants. The crash tests at lateral impact speed 55 km/h (delta-v 32 km/h) confirmed the improved performance at severities represented in current legal and rating tests. The structural integrity of the modern car impacted at 70 km/h showed a potential for improved side impact protection by interior countermeasures.

Priorities of pedestrian protection--a real-life study of severe injuries and car sources.

The aim of this study was to aid the optimisation of future, vehicle based, pedestrian injury countermeasures. The German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) database was queried for pedestrians impacted by the front of a passenger car or van. A total of 1030 cases from 1998 to 2008 were studied including 161 severely (AIS3+) injured pedestrians. Considering the severe injuries, the most frequent injury mechanisms were "leg-to-front end", "head-to-windscreen area", "chest-to-bonnet area", and "chest-to-windscreen area". For children, a "head-to-bonnet area" impact was the second most common source of injury. With safety systems targeting these five injury mechanisms, 73% (95% confidence interval [CI], 65-81%) of the severely injured pedestrians would be provided protection from all of their vehicle-induced severe injuries. Omitting the windscreen area, this figure is decreased to 44% (CI, 36-53%). Furthermore, 31% of the surviving pedestrians were estimated to sustain a permanent medical impairment at any level. For more severe impairment, head was the dominating body region. The study shows that when developing countermeasures for the windscreen area to mitigate head injuries, attention should be paid to the structural parts of the windscreen area with a special focus on brain injuries. Finally, the incidence and risk of severe injury were derived as functions of impact speed for different body regions and injury sources.

Pedestrian injury mitigation by autonomous braking.

The objective of this study was to calculate the potential effectiveness of a pedestrian injury mitigation system that autonomously brakes the car prior to impact. The effectiveness was measured by the reduction of fatally and severely injured pedestrians. The database from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) was queried for pedestrians hit by the front of cars from 1999 to 2007. Case by case information on vehicle and pedestrian velocities and trajectories were analysed to estimate the field of view needed for a vehicle-based sensor to detect the pedestrians one second prior to the crash. The pre-impact braking system was assumed to activate the brakes one second prior to crash and to provide a braking deceleration up to the limit of the road surface conditions, but never to exceed 0.6 g. New impact speeds were then calculated for pedestrians that would have been detected by the sensor. These calculations assumed that all pedestrians who were within a given field of view but not obstructed by surrounding objects would be detected. The changes in fatality and severe injury risks were quantified using risk curves derived by logistic regression of the accident data. Summing the risks for all pedestrians, relationships between mitigation effectiveness, sensor field of view, braking initiation time, and deceleration were established. The study documents that the effectiveness at reducing fatally (severely) injured pedestrians in frontal collisions with cars reached 40% (27%) at a field of view of 40 degrees. Increasing the field of view further led to only marginal improvements in effectiveness.

CSF biomarkers and incipient Alzheimer disease in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

CONTEXT: Small single-center studies have shown that cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers may be useful to identify incipient Alzheimer disease (AD) in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), but large-scale multicenter studies have not been conducted. OBJECTIVE: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of CSF beta-amyloid(1-42) (Abeta42), total tau protein (T-tau), and tau phosphorylated at position threonine 181 (P-tau) for predicting incipient AD in patients with MCI. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The study had 2 parts: a cross-sectional study involving patients with AD and controls to identify cut points, followed by a prospective cohort study involving patients with MCI, conducted 1990-2007. A total of 750 individuals with MCI, 529 with AD, and 304 controls were recruited by 12 centers in Europe and the United States. Individuals with MCI were followed up for at least 2 years or until symptoms had progressed to clinical dementia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LRs) of CSF Abeta42, T-tau, and P-tau for identifying incipient AD. RESULTS: During follow-up, 271 participants with MCI were diagnosed with AD and 59 with other dementias. The Abeta42 assay in particular had considerable intersite variability. Patients who developed AD had lower median Abeta42 (356; range, 96-1075 ng/L) and higher P-tau (81; range, 15-183 ng/L) and T-tau (582; range, 83-2174 ng/L) levels than MCI patients who did not develop AD during follow-up (579; range, 121-1420 ng/L for Abeta42; 53; range, 15-163 ng/L for P-tau; and 294; range, 31-2483 ng/L for T-tau, P < .001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-0.82) for Abeta42, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.80) for P-tau, and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.76-0.83) for T-tau. Cut-offs with sensitivity set to 85% were defined in the AD and control groups and tested in the MCI group, where the combination of Abeta42/P-tau ratio and T-tau identified incipient AD with a sensitivity of 83% (95% CI, 78%-88%), specificity 72% (95% CI, 68%-76%), positive LR, 3.0 (95% CI, 2.5-3.4), and negative LR, 0.24 (95% CI, 0.21-0.28). The positive predictive value was 62% and the negative predictive value was 88%. CONCLUSIONS: This multicenter study found that CSF Abeta42, T-tau, and P-tau identify incipient AD with good accuracy, but less accurately than reported from single-center studies. Intersite assay variability highlights a need for standardization of analytical techniques and clinical procedures.

Real-life fatal outcome in car-to-car near-side impacts--implications for improved protection considering age and crash severity.

OBJECTIVE: Recent studies have shown that current side airbags, protecting head and chest, are saving lives in near-side impacts (Kahane 2007; McCartt and Kyrychenko 2007). The aim of this study was to analyze NASS/CDS real-life data on fatal trauma in near-side car-to-car crashes, stratified by age into non-senior and senior occupants. Furthermore, a hypothetical model explaining side airbag effectiveness as a function of lateral delta-v was presented. The model together with the field data was then used to demonstrate further enhancement of side airbag restraint performance. METHOD: Weighted NASS/CDS data from 1994 to 2006 for front seat occupants in near-side car-to-car impacts was used to calculate the exposure, incidence, and risk of fatal trauma with respect to lateral delta-v. The dataset was also divided into non-senior (10-59 years) and senior (age > or = 60 years) occupants. The hypothetical model was created to adjust the NASS/CDS data to represent a car fleet fully equipped with current side airbag protection. The model was then used to evaluate the increase in effectiveness of improved side airbag protection achieved by increasing the lateral delta-v in the range where the airbag have most mitigating effect, increasing the airbag protection level within the delta-v range currently tested, and a combination of the two approaches. RESULTS: From the NASS/CDS data, the median delta-v for fatal injury was 37 km/h for the total sample. When stratified with respect to age, the median delta-v for fatal injury was 41 km/h for non-seniors and 28 km/h for senior occupants. The exposures for both age groups were similar. However, the fatal incidence showed a difference in delta-v range between non-senior and senior occupants. Applying the airbag model increased the median delta-v to 40 km/h for the total sample and 47 and 30 km/h for non-seniors and seniors, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Current side airbag systems offer very good protection for non-senior occupants up to delta-v 40 km/h. Though still high, the protection for senior occupants is lower. To enhance side airbag protection, the side airbag performance should be maximized where the fatal incidence is high. Therefore, to further reduce non-senior fatalities, the test speed should be increased. To further reduce senior fatalities, the protection level within severities currently tested should be increased. A combination of the two approaches would result in about a 40 percent increase of the side airbag effectiveness.

Pedestrian fatality risk as a function of car impact speed.

Knowledge of the amount of violence tolerated by the human body is essential when developing and implementing pedestrian safety strategies. When estimating the potential benefits of new countermeasures, the pedestrian fatality risk as a function of impact speed is of particular importance. Although this function has been analysed previously, we state that a proper understanding does not exist. Based on the largest in-depth, pedestrian accident study undertaken to date, we derive an improved risk function for adult pedestrians hit by the front of passenger cars. Our results show far lower fatality risks than generally reported in the traffic safety literature. This discrepancy is primarily explained by sample bias towards severe injury accidents in earlier studies. Nevertheless, a strong dependence on impact speed is found, with the fatality risk at 50 km/h being more than twice as high as the risk at 40 km/h and more than five times higher than the risk at 30 km/h. Our findings should have important implications for the development of pedestrian accident countermeasures worldwide. In particular, the scope of future pedestrian safety policies and research should be broadened to include accidents with impact speeds exceeding 50 km/h.

Rear seat occupant thorax protection in near side impacts.

Thoracic side-airbags (SAB) have proven to protect front seat occupants in side impacts. This benefit has not been evaluated for rear seat occupants who are typically small statured. The objective was to analyze field data from rear seat occupants in near side impacts, and evaluate the effect of a SAB in the rear seat, through full scale vehicle tests. A field study using the NASS-CDS database was performed to review rear seat crash characteristics, occupant injuries (Abbreviated Injury Scale 3+, AIS3+) and injury sources. Full scale tests were performed with the side impact dummy SID-IIs at two different crash severities, with and without SAB in a midsize passenger car. Field data showed that of all AIS3+ injured restrained occupants 13 years and older, 59% had AIS3+ thoracic injuries and 38% had AIS3+ head injuries. The thoracic injuries were distributed to lungs (60%), skeletal fractures (38%) and injuries to arteries (1,26%) and heart (0,1%). For AIS3+ injured children, age 4-12, 51% had AIS3+ thoracic injuries and 54% had AIS3+ head injuries. Compared to adults, children sustained less fractures and more lung injuries. The rear side interior was the main injury source regardless of age group. In the full scale tests, the thoracic side-airbag reduced the average rib deflection by 50% and resulted in an AIS3+ injury risk reduction from 36% to 3%. At the higher impact speed, SAB reduced the injury risk from 93% to 24%. The full scale crash tests showed that SAB offer a significant potential for thoracic injury reduction in the crash severities causing the majority of serious injuries in real life crashes.